2026 98th Academy Awards, Cineplay's Predictions for Major Category Winners

The American Academy Awards, a film festival that serves as a small talk topic for filmmakers, audiences, and cinephiles, is just around the corner. The 98th Academy Awards will be held on March 15 local time, and at 7:30 AM on March 16 Korean time, at the Dolby Theatre in Hollywood, Los Angeles. Which films will be honored with awards as selected by Academy members through voting? This year, Cineplay reporters have predicted the winners in four major categories: Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actress, and Best Actor. Readers are invited to see if our reporters, who had a somewhat disappointing prediction rate last year, can achieve redemption this year. The 98th Academy Awards will be available for viewing on OCN, TVING, and Disney+.

Cineplay's Choice, Best Picture

〈One Battle After Another〉

Chua Young - 〈One Battle After Another〉

〈Cineus: The Sinners〉 has performed well by being nominated in 16 categories at the 2026 Academy Awards, but it seems that 〈One Battle After Another〉, which has already won the highest honors at the Critics' Choice and Golden Globe Awards, will take home the Oscar for Best Picture. In this work, Paul Thomas Anderson brings the spirit of the counterculture movement of the 1960s into the present, transcending the gaps of time. The paranoid style created by the combination of Thomas Pynchon and Anderson, following 〈Inherent Vice〉, is playfully varied in this work. I hope that 〈One Battle After Another〉, which still calls for revolution in the MAGA era, will receive a meaningful award.

Joo Sung-cheol - 〈One Battle After Another〉

In a decisive moment to shed the stigma of being a 'party for white people', the number of members with voting rights in the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS), which oversees the Academy Awards, significantly increased in 2016. In 2015 and 2016, all 20 nominees for Best Actor and Actress were white, leading to the #OscarsSoWhite hashtag movement on social media. As the number of members increased globally, the number of Academy Awards voters, which was about 6,000 in 2016, has now surpassed 10,000. Nearly half of the existing members are new. Subsequently, in 2017, symbolically, 〈Moonlight〉 won Best Picture, followed by 〈The Shape of Water〉 in 2018, 〈Green Book〉 in 2019, 〈Parasite〉 in 2020, 〈Nomadland〉 in 2021, 〈CODA〉 in 2022, 〈Everything Everywhere All at Once〉 in 2023, 〈Oppenheimer〉 in 2024, and 〈Anora〉 in 2025. A broad interest and participation in the world and society, a constant reminder of diversity, and a firm awareness of the intersection of film and reality have become trends in the Academy Awards. It is very significant that 〈Parasite〉, which won the Palme d'Or at the Cannes Film Festival, and 〈Anora〉 swept both film awards in just five years. I digress, but it is said that 〈One Battle After Another〉, which predicts the madness of the Trump era and the great chaos in America, will win Best Picture.

Kim Ji-yeon - 〈One Battle After Another〉

It was said last year that the Academy is no different from politics. The Academy Awards is not a place to determine 'Movie of the Year'. The Academy's Best Picture award best reflects where the 'public sentiment' of the Academy's 10,000 members, i.e., voters, is directed. In that sense, it is certain that 〈One Battle After Another〉 will win Best Picture, as it could not be more timely. The anti-Trump sentiment of the Academy has been targeting Trump directly or indirectly every year, and now that the 'battle' triggered by Trump is happening worldwide, the image of 〈One Battle After Another〉 winning Best Picture will undoubtedly be the most effective political declaration from filmmakers against Trump.

Seong Chan-eol - 〈Cineus: The Sinners〉

There has never been a year where the outline of Best Picture seems so clear. Usually, there is a stronghold of a film that has achieved overwhelming box office success and is supported by critics, but this year, since there is no former (with 〈F1 The Movie〉 being the only one with a $600 million box office but not 'overwhelming'), the latter 〈One Battle After Another〉 is almost 98% certain to win. However, I want to throw a wrench in here. It doesn't always go as expected. When a work is deemed overwhelming, there are always those (like me) who have a rebellious spirit. I think the work that catches the eye of such people is 〈Cineus: The Sinners〉. Like 〈One Battle After Another〉, it tells a genre story based on American history, and even includes fantastic sequences. Of course, it is the timing for the Academy members to award numerous prizes to Paul Thomas Anderson. But for some reason, I can't help but imagine that the 'Oh Linda I'm Sorry Linda' meme has transferred from Leonardo DiCaprio to Paul Thomas Anderson.

Cineplay's Choice, Best Director

〈One Battle After Another〉 Paul Thomas Anderson

Seong Chan-eol - 〈One Battle After Another〉 Paul Thomas Anderson

While other major categories have shown some surprises, the trend of the Academy in recent years has been that there are no major surprises in the Best Director category. Therefore, it seems that the Best Director award will go to Paul Thomas Anderson, who has swept director awards at other film festivals with 〈One Battle After Another〉. He has showcased various genres over the years, but with this work, he has challenged commercial and action films and produced a highly successful result, so there seems to be no disagreement.

Chua Young - 〈One Battle After Another〉 Paul Thomas Anderson

Despite the title of 'First Challenge in Blockbuster Film', Paul Thomas Anderson, who created an excellent work, will win the Academy Best Director award this time. In the latter part of 〈One Battle After Another〉, there is a car chase filmed in a section where hills undulate like waves. This sequence demonstrates that a 'cinematic' experience is still possible and sufficiently conveys the reasons why PTA should receive the Oscar for Best Director.

Joo Sung-cheol - 〈One Battle After Another〉 Paul Thomas Anderson

It is hard to believe, but Paul Thomas Anderson has never lifted an Academy trophy. He was nominated for Best Original Screenplay for 〈Boogie Nights〉 back in 1998, and although he has received several awards through films like 〈Magnolia〉, 〈There Will Be Blood〉, 〈Inherent Vice〉, 〈Phantom Thread〉, and 〈Licorice Pizza〉, it would not be an exaggeration to say he has been thoroughly overlooked. The fact that Daniel Day-Lewis won Best Actor for 〈There Will Be Blood〉 was perhaps a small consolation. However, this year at the Academy Awards, he has been nominated in a whopping 8 categories, including Best Picture and Best Director. The director that suddenly comes to mind is Christopher Nolan. He too, after being nominated for Best Original Screenplay for 〈Memento〉 in 2002, went through films like 〈Inception〉 and 〈Dunkirk〉, becoming a representative director with no ties to the Academy Awards, but in 2024, he was nominated for a staggering 13 categories with 〈Oppenheimer〉, winning 7 trophies including Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor, and Best Supporting Actor. Another commonality between the two directors is that they always create films worthy of being invited to the Cannes Film Festival, but they have always met audiences first through theatrical releases without leaking any information through world premieres at film festivals. It seems to be the fate of both directors who prefer multiplex IMAX over stuffy film festivals. Paul Thomas Anderson is now due for that reward.

Kim Ji-yeon - 〈One Battle After Another〉 Paul Thomas Anderson

Recently, there have been frequent cases where a single work has swept both Best Picture and Best Director at the Academy Awards. In 2020, 〈Parasite〉 did it, in 2021 〈Nomadland〉, in 2023 〈Everything Everywhere All at Once〉, in 2024 〈Oppenheimer〉, and last year's 〈Anora〉. Therefore, since the 2020s, there has only been one year where Best Picture and Best Director were separated (Best Picture 〈CODA〉, Best Director 〈The Power of the Dog〉). This year, with 〈One Battle After Another〉 almost certain to win Best Picture, Best Director will also go to Paul Thomas Anderson of 〈One Battle After Another〉. The sense of obligation that it is 'time to give' to Paul Thomas Anderson, who has no ties to the Academy, along with the fact that he has shown both popular and pure artistic and cinematic achievements, will likely capture the voters' sentiment.

Cineplay's Choice, Best Actress

〈Hamnet〉 Jessie Buckley

Chua Young - 〈Hamnet〉 Jessie Buckley

Jessie Buckley seems like an actress who will win Best Actress someday. But if she is to win, I hope 〈Hamnet〉 will be the work that brings her the award. Agnes is a nature-sensitive, eco-friendly woman who responds and listens to nature. Her natural spirituality and motherhood evoke Gaia while simultaneously portraying women who have been objectified as witches in a male-centered society. Although she possesses a free-spirited personality, she is bound by the customs of her time and society. Since her debut, Jessie Buckley has embodied non-typical women, and this time she fully embraces the duality of her character, delivering a wide emotional spectrum from subtle gestures to outbursts of anguish. Above all, her performance in expressing loss is truly miraculous.

Joo Sung-cheol - 〈Hamnet〉 Jessie Buckley

There is an unstoppable momentum. Jessie Buckley, who played Olivia Colman's younger self in 〈Lost Daughter〉 and was nominated for Best Actress at the 2022 Academy Awards, has completely opened her era through 〈Hamnet〉. Having reunited with Olivia Colman in 〈X to You〉, as well as in 〈Women Talking〉, 〈Men〉, 〈I Think I Should End It〉, and the recent 〈Bride!〉, her momentum is tremendous. She has swept the British Academy, the American Screen Actors Guild Award, the Critics' Choice Awards, and the Golden Globe Awards with 〈Hamnet〉, so it would not be an exaggeration to say she is on an undefeated streak. The only thing left is the clearly visible destination of the Academy Awards.

Kim Ji-yeon - 〈Hamnet〉 Jessie Buckley

This is an undisputed category. Currently, all foreign media and audience predictions show that Jessie Buckley of 〈Hamnet〉 is overwhelmingly leading. Jessie Buckley has swept the awards at ceremonies known as the 'preliminary rounds of the Academy', winning at the so-called 'Big Four Preliminary Rounds' which include the Screen Actors Guild Awards (SAG), the British Academy Awards (BAFTA), the Golden Globe Awards, and the Critics' Choice Awards. Since 2000, there have only been two instances where an actor has won all four preliminary rounds and missed the Academy Award (in 2010 and 2018), so it is highly likely that Jessie Buckley will win the Academy Award for Best Actress this year.

Seong Chan-eol - 〈Sentimental Value〉 Renate Reinsve

I really don't know about this category. After last year's predictions went completely off track, I am not very confident this year. Especially since I haven't seen Rose Byrne's outstanding performance in 〈If I Were to Kick You〉, which is considered a strong contender. However, judging by the current trend, it seems that 〈Hamnet〉 Jessie Buckley will take the award, so it will likely be 'Anyway, the Best Actress is Jessie Buckley'. However, personally, the performance that overwhelmed me was Renate Reinsve's in 〈Sentimental Value〉. While dominating the stage, her subtly empty gaze towards her long-absent father and the anxious Nora just before that suggests the depths of Nora's heart that cannot be expressed in words. It seems that 〈Sentimental Value〉 is more about the entire Borg family rather than Nora, so it appears that other candidates are gaining more strength, but I hope Renate Reinsve, who excellently brought out the complex distance of that 'family' relationship on screen, will win.

Cineplay's Choice, Best Actor

〈Cineus: The Sinners〉 Michael B. Jordan

Seong Chan-eol - 〈Cineus: The Sinners〉 Michael B. Jordan

Looking at this year's Best Actor nominees, it seems to be a battle between 'real-life characters' vs. 'one actor playing multiple roles' (a heartfelt consolation to Leonardo DiCaprio, who does not belong to either side). Timothée Chalamet has already challenged Bob Dylan and received praise for his performance as Marty Mauser, while Ethan Hawke has brilliantly portrayed the legendary musical producer Lorenz Hart. On the other hand, Michael B. Jordan convincingly played the subtly different Moore twin brothers, and Wagner Moura traverses various characters across eras. Nevertheless, to win this award, the Academy requires not only skill but also buzz, so I speculate that Michael B. Jordan, who is increasingly becoming a symbol of black film, will take home the trophy.

Joo Sung-cheol - 〈Cineus: The Sinners〉 Michael B. Jordan

Give the acting award to the twins! I hope Michael B. Jordan from 〈Cineus: The Sinners〉 wins Best Actor. If playing two roles is the best technique for an actor, then it is time to award an actor who has excellently portrayed twins. In the past, Nicolas Cage showcased a brilliant performance as twin brothers in 〈Adaptation〉 and was nominated for Best Actor at the 2003 Academy Awards. However, he had to compete against the likes of Adrian Brody, who won Best Actor for 〈The Pianist〉, Daniel Day-Lewis from 〈Gangs of New York〉, Michael Caine from 〈The Quiet American〉, and Jack Nicholson from 〈About Schmidt__, making it one of the most fiercely contested Best Actor categories in history, and he had to return empty-handed. Of course, compared to Timothée Chalamet, who is challenging for his third Academy Award for Best Actor with 〈Marty Supreme〉, this is Michael B. Jordan's first nomination, but he has already received several acting awards at various film festivals for 〈Oscar Grant's Day〉 (2013) and 〈Black Panther〉 (2018). Most importantly, since Bong Joon-ho's 〈Parasite〉 won four categories including Best Picture and Best Director in 2020, there has not been a year where a non-white actor has not won one of the four major acting awards at the Academy Awards. Considering that there are no standout actors in other categories this year, it is definitely Michael B. Jordan.

Kim Ji-yeon - 〈Cineus: The Sinners〉 Michael B. Jordan

The Academy's acting awards often go to actors who have shown 'shock'. The Academy is more generous in awarding acting awards when the effort an actor has put into a character is intuitively proven. There are various ways to determine the superiority of acting, but when it comes to acting awards, it is a category that competes based on how much 'visible labor' is involved. For example, Emma Stone, who played a child trapped in an adult's body in 〈The Poor Things〉 (2024 Academy Awards), and Brendan Fraser, who confined himself in a bulky special makeup in 〈The Whale〉 (2023 Academy Awards), are examples. Therefore, the fact that Michael B. Jordan in 〈Cineus: The Sinners〉 delivered a shocking performance by playing two roles is likely a decisive factor that makes voters want to cast their votes for him. Michael B. Jordan perfectly embodied the twin brothers Smoke and Stack in 〈Cineus: The Sinners〉, showcasing different speech patterns, gaits, and subtle facial expressions.