K-pop Big Four’s fall comeback battle: Seventeen, IVE and HYBE and SM rookies join the fray — Why does K-pop converge in autumn?

Seventeen and IVE launch October comebacks — Can they help push annual album sales past 100 million?

After the music industry briefly caught its breath amid major sporting events and holiday breaks, global K-pop stars including 'Seventeen', 'IVE' and 'PLAVE' are returning one after another, kicking off an all-out fall comeback battle. The rush reflects a strategic decision to concentrate promotions in the second half of the year ahead of year-end award shows and global tours next year.

HYBE, SM and other major labels mount all-out push as rising powers join in

Flagship groups from the agencies known as K-pop’s 'Big Four' — HYBE, SM, JYP and YG — along with popular idol groups that have built solid fan bases are releasing new albums, setting the stage for an intense battle for streams and album sales this fall.

Industry sources say 'NCT WISH', 'PLAVE', ZEROBASEONE’s 'Sung Han-bin' and 'Xdinary Heroes' will all release new music on the 12th. Sung Han-bin will release his first solo album three years after his debut, while Xdinary Heroes will appear before the public with their first album as a six-member group since member Gunil’s departure.

The debut of rookie boy group 'A2O SOUL' and girl group 'A20 LITE', produced by former SM Entertainment chief producer 'Lee Soo-man' after he left the company and founded A20 Entertainment, is another major point of interest for the music industry. The groups will hold debut showcases on the 12th and release digital singles separately on the 13th, taking their first steps into the market.

On the 19th, a unit of 'Seventeen' members Jeonghan and Joshua and 'NMIXX' will return, followed by 'BABYMONSTER' on the 23rd. 'IVE', 'ILLIT' and 'RIIZE' will release new music on the same day, the 26th, setting up what is being billed as a supermatch. Rookie group 'N-Dable' will also join the first comeback relay with its second mini album on the 27th.

November deadline set by award season, driving annual album sales

The intense comeback wave will continue into next month. 'TWS' will release new music on Nov. 2, followed by 'RESCENE' on Nov. 3. 'ATEEZ' and 'TOMORROW X TOGETHER' will join the comeback lineup on Nov. 13 and Nov. 16, respectively. 'ENHYPEN' also plans to release a new album in November, marking its third round of promotions this year alone.

Fans in South Korea and abroad are closely watching RESCENE’s new songs after the group gained mainstream appeal with the viral hit 'Love Attack' and the remake 'Pretty Girl'. They are also watching the first album ATEEZ will release since 'Badd' became one of the group’s signature global hits. 'HYBE' has assembled an unusually simultaneous comeback lineup, with activities by its artists concentrated in the second half of the year.

Executives at major entertainment agencies broadly agree that the second-half concentration is a carefully calculated business strategy. One industry official said it was “the result of avoiding a period when public attention was scattered by major sporting events and adjusting the schedules of major artists’ activities in the first half of the year.” The official added that October and November are “the deadline for releasing new music in order to secure the year-end award-show stages and put together new 'setlists' for next year’s world tours.”

The relay of comebacks by major artists is expected to inject strong energy into the physical 'album market', which had faced concerns about a slowdown. Physical album sales totaled about 55 million copies in the first half of this year, according to Circle Chart, an increase of about 11 million copies from the same period last year. That follows a trend similar to the first half of 2023, when annual sales went beyond 100 million copies.

“The simultaneous comebacks of major artists with strong fan bases will directly lead to an increase in total annual 'album sales' and maximize each agency’s fourth-quarter revenue,” said Lim Hee-yoon, a critic of popular music. “The biggest attraction is that they can effectively imprint their new songs on global fans through year-end award shows without massive additional marketing costs.”